Since the funds raised by the tax would not go into the general fund, there is no direct benefit for UC (except perhaps for future UC cancer researchers). However, a defeat of this tax, especially since it affects only the minority of Californians and voters who smoke, would be taken as a symptom of an anti-tax mood of voters more generally.
Obviously, the tobacco industry opposes the initiative and is spending a lot of money on TV ads in opposition. However, apart from that campaign, there has been opposition to the tax as one more example of ballot-box budgeting on the part of some editorial writers and columnists.
The poll results can be found at:
Shall we have a cigarette while we wait for the vote?
UPDATE: The PPIC poll shows much narrower support for the tobacco tax - 53% - and that the support is dropping with the TV blitz against it. See:
The Field poll shows only 50% support for the tobacco tax: