The Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) has come out with a budgetary outlook report (as it usually does around this point in the year). One element is a simulated recession. Basically, as the chart above shows, there has been enough reserve build-up to deal with a "moderate recession" for a year or so. The image above assumes no new commitments in the upcoming fiscal year. Were such commitments to be made, the LAO simulation - as you might expect - shows reserves would be exhausted faster.