The UCLA Anderson Forecast met yesterday in a hybrid format - in-person and Zoom. While the Forecast did not predict a recession, it did suggest we are in for a period of sluggish growth going forward, nationally and in California. And it suggested that inflation, although likely coming down from its current pace, will not get down to the Federal Reserve's target of around 2% per annum any time soon. The large California state budgetary reserves were noted as a cushion protecting the budget against a recession, should one occur.
From the Orange County Register's summary of the conference:
California saw solid gains in leisure and hospitality, health care, social services, technology and construction in 2021, and the state’s economy will be further strengthened by increased defense spending and ongoing demand for technology, a new report says. The latest UCLA Anderson Forecast warns that the state faces economic headwinds as a result of slow national growth, but it still posted the nation’s second highest GDP growth (6.3%) between the pre-pandemic fourth quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2022.
California easily outpaced rivals Florida (5.3%) and Texas (3.5%) during that period, ranking second only to Washington state, which held the top slot with GDP growth of 6.9%...
Full story at https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/california-to-see-increased-demand-for-tech-us-headwinds-forecast-says/ar-AA1250qS.
The second half of the Forecast conference was devoted to the economic effects of climate change. It was noted, for example, that the Los Angeles area allows its rainfall largely to flow into the sea rather than capturing it - as other cities have begun to do elsewhere in the world. Such adaptations were part of the discussion with experts in the field.
You can see the full forecast session - including the climate change portion - at the link below:
Or direct to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSS8mWkcE54.
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https://ia601402.us.archive.org/25/items/big-ten/forecast%20sept%2021.mp3
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