The Forecast

The UCLA Anderson Forecast met yesterday and, not expectedly, took note of an uncertain environment. From the news release:

The June 2026 UCLA Anderson Forecast for the U.S. and California finds the economy confronting another inflationary shock, this time driven by the war in Iran and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. After tariff-driven inflation appeared to peak and the labor market began to stabilize, rising energy prices have created a new source of pressure on households, businesses and the Federal Reserve.

The national economy remains relatively resilient, but the Iran-related oil shock has replaced tariffs as the major inflation threat. GDP growth is now expected to hold at roughly 2.1% in 2026 rather than accelerate; inflation is forecast to peak at 4.5%; and unemployment is expected to rise only modestly to 4.5%. The key forces offsetting the oil shock and tariffs are investment in artificial intelligence, tax cuts and earlier fiscal support.

In California, the same energy shock creates additional pressures because of the state’s specific low-emissions gasoline requirements and the importance of ports and logistics to the state economy. California continues to outpace the U.S. in output and income growth, but its labor market remains weak, and the employment recession described in prior Forecast reports is expected to continue through the third quarter of 2026...

California Forecast Numbers

Unemployment Rates (Annual Averages)

2026: 5.5%

2027: 5.1%

2028: 4.2%

Total Employment Growth

2026: 0.2%

2027: 0.7%

2028: 2.5% ...

Full release at https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/news-and-events/ucla-anderson-forecast-says-oil-shock-has-replaced-tariffs-leading-risk-us-economy.

The forecasters looked at alternative scenarios concerning when the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened and the impact on oil prices and general inflation. At present, the world is drawing down reserves of oil, i.e., more oil is being consumed than is being newly supplied. If the war situation is not settled in a couple of months, prices will rise from current levels since pricing expectations are based on a relatively quick settlement.

Although no one said so, it struck yours truly that paradoxically we may end up with an inadvertent Trump Green New Deal, even though the idea would be anathema to the current administration. The economists' solution has always been to raise the price of oil substantially through taxes, cap-and-trade programs, and the like. Even if some kind of settlement allows oil to flow again through the Strait and prices come down, the world has learned that reliance on oil from that part of the world is unwise. We live in interesting times.

Apart from the general forecast, the remainder of the Forecast dealt with real estate: residential, commercial, and industrial. A video will eventually be available.

Union News

From the Daily Bruin: About 12,000 employees joined a union representing UC academic student employees, postdoctoral students and academic researchers May 19, making it the largest union in the UC. The expansion brings United Auto Workers Local 4811 to 60,000 workers across the UC. UAW Local 4811’s new union members include Student Services and Advising Professionals and Research and Public Service Professionals. SSAPs provide a variety of services to students and faculty, including curriculum planning, financial aid assistance and career service specialization. RPSPs engage in data collection, research and grant management...

Heather Hansen, a spokesperson for the UC Office of the President, said in an emailed statement that the Public Employment Relations Board is still reviewing the expansion. The board is addressing questions concerning which bargaining unit these workers will be placed in and potential overlap between multiple unions, Hansen added in the statement...

Full story at https://dailybruin.com/2026/05/28/12000-employees-to-bring-ucs-largest-union-to-60000-workers.

Straws in the Wind - Part 362

From the Chronicle of Higher Education: In his first interview since being named the sole finalist for the University of Florida’s presidency, Stuart Bell on Friday defended his past diversity initiatives at the University of Alabama as an effort to boost in-state enrollment and described colleges’ explicit goals of recruiting more minority students as a form of “segregation.”

“When we talk about DEI and the criticisms we all hear and agree with, we think of segregation, in terms of keeping students away from certain areas,” Bell said in an interview with Salem News Channel, a conservative news network. “Those are certainly what DEI became at some places in the country. That certainly was not our focus at the University of Alabama.” Conservative activists, prominent Republican lawmakers, and Education Secretary Linda McMahon have called for Bell’s candidacy to be rejected because of his diversity efforts as president of the University of Alabama, which they say led to pervasive discrimination against white students and faculty...

Bell plans to visit the University of Florida’s campus next week to speak with students, faculty, and administrators ahead of his interview with the Board of Trustees on June 10. If Bell is confirmed by the trustees, he will go before the Florida Board of Governors for final confirmation later this summer.

Full story at https://www.chronicle.com/article/vying-for-the-u-of-florida-presidency-stuart-bell-compares-colleges-diversity-efforts-to-segregation.

Sliding into a problem

From the Daily Cal: The percentage of failing grades in multiple UC Berkeley computer science classes in spring 2026 is significantly higher than past semesters and marks a departure from the department’s grading guidelines. Instructors point to students’ increased reliance on AI, lack of mathematical preparedness and understaffing as potential contributing factors.

According to Berkeleytime, 35.3% of CS 10 students and 10.6% of CS 61A students received F’s in spring 2026. In spring 2025 and spring 2024, the percentage of F’s did not exceed 10% for either class. The electrical engineering and computer sciences department’s grading guidelines state that 7% of students in lower division courses, including CS 10 and CS 61A, should receive D’s and F’s...

UC Berkeley teaching professor Dan Garcia taught both CS 10, “The Beauty and Joy of Computing,” and CS 61A, “The Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs,” in spring 2026. Garcia believes the “primary driver” of these abnormally high failing rates is due to a “vast increase in academic dishonesty” due to students’ usage of large language models, such as Claude, ChatGPT and Google Gemini.

“Some of the numbers that you saw from the number of students who receive failing grades were because we caught them (cheating) and prosecuted them and are sending their cases to the center for student conduct,” Garcia said. “But in other cases, it’s students who are leaning a little too hard on LLMs to do their work for them, and then at exam time just really aren’t ready.” ...

Full story at https://www.dailycal.org/news/campus/academics/failing-grades-soar-as-professors-see-greater-ai-usage-dwindling-math-skills-in-uc-berkeley/article_16fad0bf-02cb-4b8c-8d88-888ffd9f8608.html.

AI Ban at Berkeley Law

From Law.com: University of California Berkeley School of Law has implemented a strict new AI policy, joining a growing number of law schools that have adopted similar policies to ban the use of AI on assignments, as universities work to balance teaching the use of AI tools while also mitigating AI-assisted cheating. The policy, which goes into effect this summer, is sweeping and bans the use of AI for anything from brainstorming, organizing and grammar checking, to translating a paper written in a different language. Further, the policy states that AI can be used for research on papers “for the limited purpose of identifying sources, such as cases, statutes or secondary sources,” which is the only allowable use...

“We want to prevent its use in writing exams and papers ... (because) we want to be grading the students’ work,” Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of UC Berkeley Law, told Law.com. “The policy adopted by the faculty seeks to make clear to students what is not allowed.” ...

Full story at https://www.law.com/therecorder/2026/05/26/berkeley-law-implements-ai-ban-/.

Straws in the Wind - Part 361

From Inside Higher Ed: Faculty members at the University of Texas at Austin say new systemwide personnel policy changes could pave the way for politically motivated program closures and further disenfranchise faculty from decision-making related to their own departments. And, according to the Board of Regents’ recent meeting agenda, more policy changes are on the way. The revised rule 31003, approved unanimously last week by voice vote, establishes new grounds to close academic departments. In addition to academic reasons—such as low enrollment or poor program quality—and financial exigency, presidents can now shutter programs due to “extraordinary circumstances” that necessitate “accelerated program closure due to regulatory requirements” and bypass typical review procedures.

The revisions are an effort by the board to “improve efficiency and usability” of the rules, which the board revisits periodically. They were developed “in collaboration with stakeholders throughout the U.T. System,” the agenda states. But faculty members were not made aware of the changes, said Brian Evans, an engineering professor at UT Austin and president of the Texas American Association of University Professors–American Federation of Teachers. Most faculty learned about the proposed revisions when the board posted the agenda 72 hours before the board meeting, which is the minimum notice period required by Texas law, Evans explained...

The revision to rule 31003 also allows the president to eliminate individual faculty positions for “bona fide academic reasons,” which include, but are not limited to, “poor program quality or effectiveness, misalignment with the institution’s mission, failure to meet student or societal needs, low enrollment and demand, and redundancy with other existing more effective programs,” according to the rule. Previously, faculty eliminated for academic reasons had 30 days to appeal the decision. Now, they have 15 days...

Full story at https://www.insidehighered.com/news/faculty/shared-governance/2026/05/27/u-texas-makes-it-easier-fire-faculty-close-programs.

You didn't miss it because you weren't invited

 

Yesterday, the Regents had yet another closed-door meeting on the conflict with the feds.* Was there some new development to be discussed? We won't ever know.

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*https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/jun26/meeting-notice_federal-june-2-2026.pdf.