Revenues for the first 10 months of the year (July through April) were $4.4 billion ahead of the forecast made last January when the governor presented his budget proposal for 2025-26. They were $8.8 billion ahead of the projections made last June when the current budget was enacted.
Virtually all of this overage is coming from the state's personal income tax which suggests what we are seeing is capital gains from the stock market based on gains in 2024, i.e., before the current stock market gyrations began in response to tariffs, etc.
Note that because of the fires, taxpayers in LA County did not have to file in April so there probably would have been more overage had the fires not occurred. Taxpayers who owe money in LA County have no particular incentive to file early, but those due refunds had such an incentive.
The state has well over $90 billion in unused borrowable resources so we won't see the kind of IOU/warrant financing we saw in the past if the economy does go south next fiscal year. The governor is due to unveil his May Revise budget proposal next week.
You can find the controller's report through April 2025 at:
https://sco.ca.gov/Files-ARD/CASH/April2025StatementofGeneralFundCashReceiptsandDisbursements.pdf.
No comments:
Post a Comment