Told you so

Maybe not beautiful, but noteworthy.

When we have reviewed the state budget allocation to UC in the past, we noted that the idea of a multiyear "compact" with the governor is fine in the abstract. But in practice, it is the legislature that enacts state budgets. And there is no way to write a contract that compels a future legislature to do anything, let alone comply with a compact which legislators played no part in negotiating.

The current proposal by the governor for the 2025-26 budget involves a cut for UC, termed a deferral, but a promise to make it up in future budgets keeping the compact intact (kind of). But here comes the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) in a publication on UC dated Feb. 27: [excerpt]

Recommend Removing Deferrals to Signal More Realistic Budget Expectations. Last year, the state provided a clear signal to UC that it was to begin planning for a base General Fund reduction in 2025‑26. This approach gave UC time to plan and make the associated adjustments within its budget. Given the state’s projected deficit in 2026‑27, the state likely will not have budget capacity to support substantial increases in General Fund spending for any programs, including UC. Rather than continuing with the deferral plans and committing to out‑year funding increases, we recommending sending a more realistic signal to UC that it may not receive an increase in its state General Fund support in 2026‑27. Signaling this expectation is more helpful to UC than setting an explicit expectation it will receive substantial additional state support in 2026‑27, without any specific plan to ensure that funding is forthcoming. It also avoids having the state create new fiscal obligations it cannot currently afford. If the state’s fiscal condition improves over the next year, the Legislature could consider providing additional General Fund support for UC at that time. 

Source: https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4998.

In short, promises from the governor ARE worth the paper they are printed on, but no more than that.