Receipts in the period July-February of the 2024-25 fiscal year were ahead of the estimates made in January by $4.2 billion and ahead of the estimates made last June when the current budget was passed by $10.6 billion.
In both cases, the bulk of the overage comes from the personal income tax and probably reflect capital gains from the stock market during the past calendar year.
The overage should be helpful to UC in making the case for its budget request for the coming fiscal year. But as we have noted in past posts, Medi-Cal is apparently running ahead of projections in cost and there is general concern about where the economy is going, uncertainties from the political situation in DC, etc. In addition, the governor's proposal calls for pulling down reserves which in common English means running a deficit (although not in the strange language of California budget-speak).
The controller's figures are from:
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