Our weekly look at new California weekly claims for unemployment insurance shows no particular trend. There are news reports that the labor market generally is "cooling." But cooling from a situation of widespread labor shortages is not a move toward recession. When the labor market operates with lots of vacancies and then demand begins to recede (perhaps because of Federal Reserve interest rate increases), employers "lay off" vacancies rather than real people. In short, starting from a shortage situation is a kind of shock absorber. We'll revisit the numbers next week. But don't hold your breath for some major development.
As always, the latest claims data are at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.
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