Threat

We have previously noted that we hope the powers-that-be at UC are thinking about a plan for a chaotic post-election situation. Somewhat related is a post-election consideration of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) by the U.S. Supreme Court. 

The Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) notes in a recent publication that about $25 billion under the ACA flows into California to fund expansion of health insurance coverage to the uninsured. These funds do not all directly go into the state's general fund budget. (See the LAO's table below.) But if the ACA is declared unconstitutional or even sharply curtailed, the result in California - which was aggressive in expanding coverage - would be a jump in the uninsured population. In such a scenario, it is likely that in one way or another, the state's already stressed budget would be reallocated toward maintaining coverage - and thus away from UC.

There would also be secondary negative effects on the UC health system. What would actually happen would depend in part on the outcome of the election at the national level. 

The LAO's analysis is at:

https://lao.ca.gov/handouts/Health/2020/Overturning-the-ACA-102120.pdf