Still Waiting (for the recession)

Our weekly look at new weekly unemployment benefit claims in California as a possible indicator of a coming recession is still signaling nothing.

With all the headlines about tech layoffs, one might expect some sign of rising new claims, but it never seems to happen. The latest figures ending in the week of February 25 still are at pre-pandemic, boomtime levels, as can be seen in the chart below.

The UCLA Anderson Forecast will be presented on March 15. Last December, the Forecast punted and gave two scenarios, one with a recession and one without.* We'll see what happens this time.

As always, the latest claims data are at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.

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*Yours truly discussed the outlook with Prof. Ed Leamer, former Forecast director, at a recent event at the Faculty Club:

https://ia801406.us.archive.org/20/items/forecast-2011/Leamer-Mitchell%20Emeriti%26Retirees%20Assn%20video%202-16-2023.mp4

and

https://ia801406.us.archive.org/20/items/forecast-2011/Leamer-Mitchell%20Emeriti%26Retirees%20Assn%20slides%202-16-2023.mp4.