When the chancellors of the various UC campuses got together to discuss what to do last month as the Omicron threat was growing, we know what the end product was: Those campuses which started before January 18 would begin online. But we didn't know the rationale. It appears, however, that there was a notion that if the early campuses started online, they could form a "bubble" of healthy students, staff, and faculty who would be insulated from the outside world, and thus could then resume in-person instruction. One chancellor in a news interview has given us a clue to their thinking:
From KRON: ...At the University of California, Riverside, students can return on Monday but face two weeks of online classes. They are also being being asked to sequester for five days while they undergo two rounds of virus testing. It’s the first time since last spring that the school has moved fully remote, but Chancellor Kim Wilcox said it is the best way to prevent the virus from spreading after students return from holiday travel. “We think about it as rebuilding our bubble,” he said. “It gives us a chance to reset things and then hopefully be off and running.” ...*
It's unclear - to say the least - how practical the idea of a healthy campus inside of a sick surrounding community was or is. But as the lead headline in today's LA Times suggests, at UCLA, with its location in LA County, the bubble idea is likely to burst. Excerpt from that headline article:
...In a dramatic sign of Omicron’s relentless spread, the coronavirus transmission rate in Los Angeles County is now estimated to be greater than at any point since the early months of the pandemic, as cases explode across California, data show. Every infected person in L.A. County is on average transmitting the virus to two other people, according to estimates from California’s COVID-19 computer models published Monday morning. By contrast, the effective transmission rate at its worst point in last winter’s surge did not exceed 1.4, estimates from the L.A. County Department of Health Services show. Over the last week, more than 1 in 5 of those tested in L.A. County found they have contracted the coronavirus.
L.A. County recorded 23,553 new cases on Saturday and 21,200 more on Sunday, far above last winter’s peak average of 16,000 cases a day; and those numbers are likely undercounts due to lags from weekend reporting. Officials say the latest wave is fueled by a few factors, including increased travel, large holiday gatherings and the ultra-contagious Omicron variant, estimated to be two to four times as transmissible as the Delta variant. County health officials urged residents to curtail higher-risk activities, such as indoor events where people are unmasked for long periods of time and crowded outdoor gatherings...
Full story at https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-01-03/california-coronavirus-transmission-rate-now-at-highest-point-since-pandemic-began.
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