Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Demographic Shifts and Lulls

The governor's budget contains demographic projections for California.  A number of news stories have picked up on the fact that by mid-2013, the Latino and non-Latino-white populations will be equal, according to the projection.  It was pretty obvious from the 2010 Census that this development would occur soon.  However, another aspect of the projections - one more closely related to UC and budget issues - is the chart below:
Apart from the fact - well known - that the population is aging, note there is little growth in the college-age population projected for the next few years.  Moreover, the K-12 population is declining so the pressure on college admissions should be reduced for some time to come.  There seems to be a bit of a baby boom below that but they won't get to college for awhile.  (These trends have also been known for some time but they become important in the context of higher ed funding.)

The governor's budget is at:

The demographic section begins on page 121.

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