After rising a bit - although always within the pre-pandemic (boom) range - new weekly California claims for unemployment insurance fell in the week ending November 25, the latest data available. So, no sign of recession.
As we noted in a prior post, the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) is talking about a downturn in connection with state budget revenue.* But at least by this measure, it's hard to see a recession in this series. We'll see what the UCLA Anderson Forecast has to say later this week.
As always, the latest data on new claims is at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.
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*https://uclafacultyassociation.blogspot.com/2023/12/less-money-than-expected.html.
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