As blog readers will know, we track new weekly California claims for unemployment insurance as an indicator of the state's labor market and economic direction. As we noted last week, the numbers have popped up recently, but the jump matches the pre-pandemic period in 2020, so we may be looking at a seasonal event. Or it could be that the high-profile tech layoffs are showing up in the data. Possibly both are occurring.
The state budget proposal of January is based on an economic assumption of a slowing of growth and a chance of recession.* What the ultimate enacted budget looks like will depend on perceptions of what is happening over the next few months.
The latest new claims figures are always at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.
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*https://ebudget.ca.gov/2023-24/pdf/BudgetSummary/EconomicOutlook.pdf.
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https://ia804704.us.archive.org/3/items/new-year-outlook/claims%20state%20budget.mp3
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