Recall Analysis

The main take-away from the recall's outcome for UC (and everyone else) is that given the current political configuration in California, every gubernatorial election since 2010 has come out roughly 60-40 in favor of the Democratic candidate, whether Jerry Brown or Gavin Newsom. There were breathless summertime news stories that the recall election was going to be different (They're neck-and-neck!!!) - stories often based on dubious polls. But PPIC's poll (above) says that nothing really changed since at least last March, well before the campaign really got underway. 

Of course, the future is never 100% certain. The fact that Newsom won in the recall (by roughly 60-40) means that there won't be a year of total chaos in Sacramento which could have spilled over into such matters as the UC budget next year (and at Regents meetings where the governor is an ex officio member).

Moreover, since Larry Elder came out as the lead candidate among Republican voters, it seems unlikely that the California Republican Party will do what the never-Trumpers want it to do, i.e., appeal to the median California voter. So, UC should assume that the November 2022 general election will come out roughly 60-40 in favor of the Democrat and that the Democrat is very likely to be Gavin Newsom.