The UCLA Anderson Forecast met today via Zoom webinar and YouTube. (There was a hint of a return to in-person presentations/conferences in the fall.) Basically, and particularly for California, there is rapid growth expected in the near term returning various economic indicators back to pre-pandemic levels during 2022 and 2023:
...In his California forecast essay, UCLA Anderson Forecast director Jerry Nickelsburg writes that states such as California that have had stricter non-pharmaceutical interventions during the pandemic — for example, mask mandates and business closures — had better health and economic outcomes, relative to states with less stringent measures, with very few exceptions.
Nickelsburg writes that job losses in California were concentrated in sectors where a high degree of human contact is important to the services provided. These sectors — leisure and hospitality, education, retail trade, and health care and social services — accounted for 75% of all job losses in the state in 2020. As the pandemic recedes and business restrictions are eased, many of these lost jobs will return.
Nickelsburg expects the California recovery to outpace that of the U.S. Nevertheless, the leisure and hospitality sector will recover last because of the depth of its declines. Recovery will come earlier in business, scientific and technical services, and in the information sector because of the demand for new technologies that power the new ways we are working and socializing. Recovery will also occur faster in residential construction, as California’s shortage of housing relative to demand drives new construction.
The unemployment rate for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be 7.7%, with the average rates in 2021, 2022 and 2023 anticipated to be 7.1%, 5.2% and 4.3%, respectively. The total employment growth rates in 2021, 2022 and 2023 are forecast to be 5.3%, 4.0% and 2.2%, respectively. Non-farm payroll jobs are expected to grow at rates of 2.6%, 5.4% and 2.2% during the same three years. In spite of the recession, the continued demand for a limited housing stock coupled with low interest rates leads to a forecast of a relatively rapid return of home building...
Full release at https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/news-and-events/press-releases/ucla-anderson-forecast-remains-optimistic-for-post-covid-19-recovery.
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