...Our office assumes 2017-18 would end with $12.1 billion in budget reserves — about $2 billion higher than the administration’s estimate... The difference is the product of two factors. Compared to the administration: (1) our office estimates the state will end 2016-17 with about $1 billion more in revenue and (2) our office’s estimate of state General Fund spending on schools and community colleges is nearly $800 million lower in 2017-18...
Full report at http://www.lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3675
The LAO report sets the stage for bargaining between the Democratic leaders of the legislature and the governor on the budget, which must be passed by the legislature in mid-June.
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