An interesting analysis of MOOCs in a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper by Stanford economist Caroline M. Hoxby suggests that heavy dependence on online ed won't work for what she terms highly selective post-secondary educational institutions. In essence, such institutions depend in important ways on alumni loyalty which is hard to obtain if students take courses online that come from anywhere.
Abstract: I consider how online postsecondary education, including massive open
online courses (MOOCs), might fit into economically sustainable models
of postsecondary education. I contrast nonselective postsecondary
education (NSPE)in which institutions sell fairly standardized
educational services in return for up-front payments and highly
selective postsecondary education (HSPE) in which institutions invest in
students in return for repayments much later in life. The analysis
suggests that MOOCs will be financially sustainable substitutes for some
NSPE, but there are risks even in these situations. The analysis
suggests that MOOCs will be financially sustainable substitutes for only
a small share of HSPE and are likely to collapse the economic model
that allows HSPE institutions to invest in advanced education and
research. I outline a non-MOOC model of online education that may allow
HSPE institutions both to sustain their distinctive activities and to
reach a larger number of students.
Full paper available at http://www.nber.org/papers/w19816.pdf
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