The latest cash statement from the state controller is out
and covers the fiscal year through October.
It shows revenues to the state running about $600 million ahead of the
forecast incorporated into the state budget last June. Blog readers will recall that Gov. Brown
insisted on what might be described as “conservative” estimates of revenue –
over the objection of legislative Democrats – as a kind of hedge against
possible bad news on the economy. If the
estimates prove to be below the actual receipts, there will simply be that much
more cash in the general fund than otherwise.
On a cash basis, in the fiscal year that ended June 2012
(2011-12), the state was running a cash deficit (receipts < spending) and
finished the year with a negative reserve in the general fund of -$9.6
billion. However, last fiscal year
(2012-13) with the Prop 30 temporary taxes in place and the (slow) economic
recovery, the state ran a surplus (receipts > spending), leaving the reserve
still negative – but a less negative -$2.4 billion. (There is no reconciliation provided by the
state between the official budget that the legislature passes and which uses a
fuzzy accrual methodology and the cash statements of the controller. That's a Bad Thing.) However, the state might well finish this
fiscal year with a positive balance in its general fund on a cash basis if some
unforeseen bad economic news doesn’t materialize.
You can find the state controller’s latest cash statement
at:
The cash statement for 2012-13 (which also shows 2011-12) is
at:
So things are OK for now, as George Clooney's aunt might put it:
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