Some excerpts from the LA Times story on today’s UCLA Anderson Forecast:
The national economy is in "far worse" shape than it was just three months ago, but neither the U.S. nor California is expected to slip back into recession, according to UCLA researchers. The U.S. economy has "stalled," the job market is "horrible," and even a "modest shock" could trigger a full-blown recession, according to a quarterly economic forecast released Tuesday by UCLA's Anderson School of Management. But in a nuance that only an economist could appreciate, a recession is unlikely because the forces that normally spur downturns, such as a falloff in home construction, are already so weak that further deterioration won't do that much additional damage…
Closer to home, the outlook for California's economy is similar to that of the nation. The most notable development in the state is the widening gap between the fortunes of relatively prosperous coastal areas and those of far more challenged inland regions, economists said… For all of California, UCLA predicts virtually no growth this year, followed by anemic rates of 0.7% next year and 2.1% in 2013. The state's 12.1% unemployment rate will remain around 12% through next year and will average 11% in 2013. It won't drop to the single digits until 2014, according to the report.
Full story at http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ucla-economy-20110920,0,7444598.story
Don’t worry:
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