Hard Winter - Then Moving Back to Trend by 2023: UCLA Anderson Forecast

From the Forecast news release:

The California Forecast

The COVID-19 pandemic’s outsized and unpredictable impact on California is expected to continue, at the very least, for the immediate future.

As Forecast director Jerry Nickelsburg and economist Leila Bengali write, “California has responded, as before, with more restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) via mask mandates, closures and gathering restrictions. We expect that to continue, particularly through the holiday season, as significant traveling by Americans has thus far presaged further increases in COVID cases. We also know that at least three vaccines are in the latter stages of testing and approval. Does this mean that we are out of the woods soon? The answer is maybe.”

The economists assume that an elevated number of virus cases will persist and that caution will prevail regarding many traditional holiday activities, including in-store shopping, throughout the winter. “This will mean a weak growth rate through the balance of the year and into early 2021,” they write. “For the purposes of our forecast we also assume that a large number of people will have received one of the vaccines by summer, ushering in the beginning of a return to normalcy.”

The report notes that 1.37 million non-farm payroll jobs in California have been lost since October 2019. Although there has been a recovery of some of those jobs since April 2020, a handful of sectors will remain the state’s weakest economic sectors, bearing the brunt of the state’s employment losses: leisure and hospitality, retail and education.

The forecast for the state is that the technology sectors, residential construction and logistics will lead the recovery, and that post-pandemic California will grow faster than the U.S. as a whole, although the state’s recovery is expected to begin later.

The economists expect the state’s unemployment rate in fourth-quarter 2020 to be 8.9%, and the average unemployment rate to be 6.9% in 2021, followed by 5.2% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023. They project total employment growth rates of 6.1% in 2021, followed by 3.4% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023, and non-farm payroll job growth of 3.6%, 3.8% and 2.5% for the same three years...

Full release at https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/news-and-events/press-releases/anticipating-vaccine-ucla-anderson-forecast-expects-recovery-to-begin-in-spring-21

Apart from the short- to intermediate-term California forecast, the Zoom conference today discussed the national economy and the impact of climate change on the long-term economy.

UC may be rocked by this cradle

Back in the day at UCLA Health

Yours truly somehow missed the plan described below which involves the creation of a massive data system - known as the Cradle-to-Career Data System - which would include data from UC and other public and private higher educational institutions in California. 

The State of California and its various public entities have a poor record of designing and implementing large computer systems, be it the DMV, EDD, or - closer to home - UC's UCPath system. Confidential data have leaked from various UC data sets. Beyond the technology and management challenges, issues of privacy are likely to be involved in this project.

Below are excerpts from a key planning document for the proposed system:

Legislation passed in 2019 in California aims to link existing education, workforce, financial aid, and social service information in order to better equip policymakers, educators, and the public to address disparities in opportunities and improve outcomes for all students throughout the state. Over the course of 2020, in accordance with this legislation, more than 170 people from 15 state agencies and many educational institutions, research and policy organizations, and community groups have worked together to design a blueprint for the California Cradle-to-Career Data System. This report describes the planning process and outlines recommendations for phase one of creating and implementing the data system...

Information from each data provider would be stored in the cloud in a secure repository. The core data set used for the dashboards and query builder would be kept in a centralized database, and other information would be combined for approved purposes. To support the analytical tools, each data provider would upload a subset of their information once per year. To help safeguard individual privacy, records for individuals would be matched using a variety of data points, and unique identifiers would be assigned for each data pull. Information for the operational tools, such as student planning tools and electronic transcripts, would be kept separate from information used for analytical purposes and would be refreshed on a more frequent basis than the analytical data set.

The Cradle-to-Career Data System would be governed jointly by a board made up of representatives of state agencies and the stakeholders who use this information. Two-thirds of the governing board’s seats would be apportioned to entities providing data and one-third would be members of the public appointed by the Governor and Legislature...

Given the expansive proposed scope for the data system, the planners recommend a five-year process for phase one. In year one, 1) the governing structure, staff, and technical solutions would be established; 2) the core data sets would be linked, including K–12, public postsecondary, financial aid, employment, and limited social service and apprenticeship data points; 3) a user-centered design process would be implemented for the public tools; and 4) infrastructure improvements would be made to the operational tools to support their scaling. The estimated budget for year one is between $15–$20 million.

In year two, 1) the project website and public tools would be launched; 2) the first data requests would be approved; 3) further infrastructure improvements would be made to the operational tools, and their use would be expanded; and 4) the professional development infrastructure would be developed.

In year three, 1) the data set would be expanded to include independent colleges and information from the National Student Clearinghouse on colleges in other states; 2) new features for operational tools would be deployed; 3) professional development would be expanded; and 4) public tools and the data request process would be evaluated and improved.

In year four, 1) the data set would be expanded to include early learning and care, private colleges, and teacher credentialing; 2) plans would be developed for expanding social service, health, and workforce data sets; 3) new features for operational tools would be deployed; 4) professional development would expand; and 5) further improvements would be made to public tools.

In year five, 1) the data set would be expanded to include social service, health, and workforce information; 2) the operational tools would be fully scaled; 3) the data system’s structure, operational tools, professional development, and hosting would be evaluated; and 4) strategic objectives and data sets for phase two would be identified.

Full item at:

https://cadatasystem.wested.org/system/resources/W1siZiIsIjIwMjAvMDgvMTEvMTgvMjkvMjcvMTJmNDA4N2EtOTI2NS00NjU3LThiZjItMTg3OTNmOWY2MjEzL0p1bmUgMjMgMjAyMCBSZXNlYXJjaCBBZ2VuZGEgU3ViLUNvbW1pdHRlZSBCYWNrZ3JvdW5kIFBhcGVyLnBkZiJdXQ/June%2023%202020%20Research%20Agenda%20Sub-Committee%20Background%20Paper.pdf?sha=a68670d413984d4b or, alternatively, at:

https://m.box.com/shared_item/https%3A%2F%2Fwested.box.com%2Fs%2Ffif6f3wub2pw97j74m2x3nka2gxdj5zm/view/749174696305 

The California Dept. of Education seems to be in charge of this project. It describes it on its website:

The California Cradle-to-Career Data System (California Data System)... will connect data from early education, K-12 education, financial aid, higher education, workforce, and health and human services.

See https://www.cde.ca.gov/ds/dc/c2cdatasystemp20.asp

The bill - SB-75 (2019-2020) - establishing this project is at:

http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201920200SB75

Excerpt: This bill would establish the California Cradle-to-Career Data System Workgroup, composed of representatives of specified entities, to provide assessment, recommendations, and advice about statewide data infrastructure that integrates data from state entities responsible for elementary and secondary education data, entities responsible for early learning data, segments of public higher education, private colleges and universities, state entities responsible for student financial aid, childcare providers, state labor and workforce development agencies, and state departments administering health and human services programs. The bill would require the Director of State Planning and Research, or the director’s designee, to lead the workgroup.

Things to Come at Berkeley

From the Daily Cal: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues with no end in sight for the foreseeable future, the upcoming UC Berkeley 2021 summer sessions will be delivered remotely. The announcement was made Friday to give campus departments enough time to adjust accordingly and plan to deliver high-caliber summer courses online, as well as allow students to start definitively planning their courses, according to a Berkeley Summer Sessions press release.

“Our hope is this early decision to pivot to a remote summer will provide some measure of certainty for our campus community in a time of so much uncertainty,” the press release states.

The summer 2021 schedule will be available Dec. 10, and registration opens Feb. 1, according to the press release.

A limited number of in-person classes may be available, and the process for granting exceptions will be released soon.

Source: https://www.dailycal.org/2020/12/07/uc-berkeley-2021-summer-sessions-to-be-offered-remotely/

Things used to be happier, back in the day:

or direct to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TK_z73tVbgU.

UC to Help State on Cellphone Notification App

The State of California has asked the University of California to lead an expansion of a  smartphone-based COVID-19 exposure notification system recently tested at seven University of California campuses. Under this statewide program, researchers and entrepreneurs at UC San Diego Health who developed and led the pilot program will manage broadening the program for the State.

The notification system, called CA Notify which will officially launch on December 10, enables individuals who opt-in to the program to receive automatic smartphone notifications if the user has high-risk exposure to other enrolled users who are diagnosed with COVID-19. As part of the privacy-first approach, users decide whether they want to share their own verified positive test result with the system and with other users. The technology does not store location information. Also, the identities of users are not shared. 

The notification system prompts users who receive an alert to self-isolate and seek clinical resources, which are key to limiting the spread of COVID-19. The system uses Google/Apple Exposure Notification (GAEN) technology...

Full release at https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/covid-19-exposure-notification-system-expands-statewide-university-california-lead-roll

===

The governor's announcement about the new app is at:

https://archive.org/details/newsom-11-9-20/newsom+12-7-20.mp4

Alternative Work for UCLA Dining Workers During Coronavirus Crisis

UCLA Dining Helps Feed Patients, Families At Venice Family Clinic

By Nicole Charky, Patch, Dec 8, 2020 1:00 am PT

VENICE, CA — UCLA Monday announced a partnership with the Venice Family Clinic in which the university's dining staff will provide 13,000 free meals per week to the clinics' patients and their families. The Venice Family Clinic, which has sites in Venice, Santa Monica, Mar Vista and Hawthorne, will receive healthy, ready-to-eat meals five days a week from UCLA, whose staff have fewer students to feed on campus amid the COVID-19 pandemic, which has forced most classes to be conducted online. The clinic's staff and volunteers will distribute the meals to low- income patients being served at the clinic. Each qualifying family or individual will receive four meals per week, which will consist of a pound of healthy food. UCLA Dining Service's executive chef helped design special menus to address health needs of patients and provide options, such as blackened fish with pineapple salsa or leg of lamb with roasted potatoes.

"We know our patients, who have lost income and are dealing with the effects of the pandemic, are struggling to feed their families," Venice Family Clinic CEO Elizabeth Benson Forer said. "This innovative collaboration with UCLA means that we can ease our patients' worries and ensure they have the food they need to stay healthy." The food will be paid for by donations to the clinic, while UCLA will provide the labor to prepare and deliver the meals. UCLA tuition funds will not be used, officials said.

"We're proud to serve families in the community through a partnership that helps keep people healthy and fed during the pandemic," said Joey Martin, senior executive chef of UCLA Housing and Hospitality. "Working with the Venice Family Clinic magnifies the good both organizations can do. UCLA's commitment to its staff and to the community is part of who we are as an institution. Working together, we can help many more people than we could alone."

The clinic is accepting donations to keep the meals going, and they are currently planning to continue the partnership through mid-January or longer. "It's something we're piloting and it's working," Vanessa Fernandez told Patch.

Source: https://patch.com/california/venice/ucla-dining-helps-feed-patients-families-venice-family-clinic

UCLA Lockdown

From an email circulated late this afternoon:

Dear Bruin Community:

As you may be aware, the California Department of Public Health has introduced a regional stay at home order (PDF) and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has implemented a targeted order (PDF) aimed at curbing the latest surge in COVID-19 cases and preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed.

Importantly, under these orders, all gatherings of any number of people outside your household are prohibited, with few exceptions. Additionally, as previously announced, a curfew is in place for Los Angeles County and many other California counties from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. daily.

As we continue to embrace our shared responsibility for limiting the spread of the disease, we encourage all members of our Bruin community to abide by these regulations: Remain inside your homes as much as possible, avoid contact with others outside of your household and wear a face covering when you must be outside of your home, including while indoors and outside at UCLA facilities.

Because the vast majority of on-campus activities remain scaled back, the new directives should not lead to major changes in our operations, but we will temporarily cease any ramping up of on-campus activities, effective immediately. Key areas that will be affected are:

• Research. On-campus and field research activities that have already been approved through the Vice Chancellor for Research’s research ramp-up plan will be able to continue, according to the terms of the approved research operational plans (ROPs). New researchers can be added to approved plans so long as the total number of personnel in an approved ROP does not increase. Approved ROPs must be amended to reflect new research personnel. Instructions for modifying an approved ROP can be found on the Research Operational Plan FAQs (PDF). With very limited exceptions, review and approval of new on-campus or field research plans is suspended until further notice. For more information about research operations, email c19@research.ucla.edu.

• UCLA Meyer & Renee Luskin Conference Center and Lake Arrowhead Lodge and Conference Center. While the regional stay at home order is in effect, only people associated with essential activities are permitted to stay at these facilities. Previously made reservations for stays involving nonessential travelers will be canceled and refunded.

Most other on-campus activities — including the limited in-person courses and remote courses taught by faculty who are coming to campus — have been determined to be essential operations and will be able to continue as such. As we have throughout the pandemic, we will keep you apprised of how UCLA is affected by future regulations related to COVID-19.

In the meantime, please visit the UCLA COVID-19 Resources website and Bruins Safe Online for the latest information. If you have any questions, please email covid19@ucla.edu.

Thank you for your continued partnership and resilience during this very trying time.

Sincerely,

Michael J. Beck

Administrative Vice Chancellor

Co-chair, COVID-19 Response and Recovery Task Force

Michael Meranze

Immediate Past Chair, Academic Senate

Professor of History

Co-chair, COVID-19 Response and Recovery Task Force

Viral Swimming

   UCLA swim team member, Chris Woo, c1979

From the Bruin: The upcoming swim and dive season will present challenges unlike any other.

The return of college sports in 2020 has faced unprecedented challenges given COVID-19 complications and sudden outbreaks. For those that have resumed play, such as football and men’s and women’s basketball, returning to competition has been stymied by game cancellations and newly developed protocols, while other sports face season postponements.

Second-year coach Jordan Wolfrum believes UCLA swim and dive does not have to face predicating issues – such as maintaining physical distance – that contact sports like football and basketball face.

“Fortunately for us, we can do our sport at a really high level, very, very distanced and safe and in a way that is very compliant with (COVID-19) protocols,” Wolfrum said. “So even putting together the way that we will do a meet or a competition, it’s more about travel and figuring out those pieces because the reality is we don’t need to come within 6 feet of each other in most senses.”

With the resumption of certain fall and winter sport seasons, the Pac-12 put together a series of protocols for its member institutions to follow, such as daily antigen testing along with a weekly polymerase chain reaction test to be given to the student-athletes. Should a positive test come to light, cardiac monitoring is among the protocols in place to address virus-related health concerns.

Additionally, those infected – and people within their 6-foot vicinity during a 48-hour window of the positive test – will be required to quarantine for a minimum of 10 days, or seven with a negative test...

Full story at https://dailybruin.com/2020/12/02/swim-and-dive-gets-back-in-the-water-after-extended-time-off