It could be a timing-is-everything-situation

The state controller released his January cash statement for the state.  For the first seven months of the fiscal year, revenues are running over $4 billion ahead of what was anticipated in the original budget.  More than all of this amount is coming from the personal income tax.  I say more than all because sales tax has come in below forecast - suggesting that the underlying economy is not booming.  So why the jump in income tax revenue?  It may be that because of the fiscal cliff, etc., wealthy folks - who account disproportionately for the income tax - did things such as take capital gains before January 1.  So we could have a one-time windfall. If so, there may be less of a take from capital gains in the future.  January is a month in which quarterly estimated tax is due - which again is likely to reflect wealthy folks who pay in quarterly.  I have not seen an explanation as to why such folks might make bigger payments than forecast - unless it is a taking of capital gains in 2012.  The basic reality here is that no one knows.

It might be of interest to note that UC so far has gotten about $900 million from the state which is less than 7/12 of what we are due.  So the state is still tending to pay us later rather than sooner and leaving it to UC to go get any needed financing.

You can see the controller's statement at:
http://www.sco.ca.gov/Files-EO/fy1213_jan.pdf

Anyway, as the song says:

Reality Check on Online Higher Education

Arizona State University (ASU) offers online undergrad and grad degree programs.  It is actively recruiting Californians. Click on http://asuonline.asu.edu/?utm_source=ca-asu-edu&utm_medium=ca-asu-edu&utm_campaign=california-visit  If you visit this link, you will be given information in written and video format.  A sample course format is at: http://asuonline.asu.edu/how-it-works/learning-online-at-asu  So what is the cost?   

The ASU website offers a course calculator: https://students.asu.edu/costs  I used the calculator and entered that I was an Arizona resident, that I was seeking an online undergraduate degree, and that I would be enrolling as a freshman.  The cost per academic year was reported to be $10,792.  Of course, there are no living expenses payable to ASU since I would do this program online (so no dorm, etc.).   That amount is not all that far from what UC charges as the $13,200 sticker price for a California resident who is on campus (excluding room and board, etc.). See http://admission.universityofcalifornia.edu/paying-for-uc/cost/  The ASU price is also far removed from the notion of a $10,000 degree that some state governors around the country are touting ($10,000 for the entire four-year program). 

To the extent that the ASU program can serve as an example for UC, it suggests that a big cost saving is not to be had.  Of course, you could enroll more students – presumably students who meet UC’s admission standards – via an online program.  And conceivably the marginal cost of an added student might be less than the price above.  But if you poke around on the website, it appears that you would have to cover the expense of a significant marginal cost for all the tech support, interaction support, course grading, etc.  There is more involved than sticking a video camera in the back of a classroom.

We have noted in prior posts that the idea has captured the governor and legislative leaders that online ed is the magic solution to the monetary gap between their desire for no tuition increases and what they are prepared to devote to UC in the state budget.  But the idea is a fantasy.  At the recent Regents session at which these views were fostered, I did not see anyone click on the ASU website or its cost calculator.  Maybe somebody should.

What about the Disney Hypothesis?

An interesting article appears today in the San Francisco Chronicle about debate at UC-Berkeley over the cause of the extinction of the dinosaurs.  Was it caused by a comet striking the Earth?  Or something else?  A more precise estimate of the timing of the strike has been produced.

But what happened to the Disney hypothesis - which Southern Californians can relate to - that it was all due to too much sunshine and not enough water?


Anyway, you can read the article at:
http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Dinosaur-extinction-battle-flares-4261978.php

Someone Else, Not Me

Inside Higher Ed today carries a story about various institutions that are offering MOOCs (massive open online courses).  Some of these courses have been approved for college credit by the American Council on Education.  But the institutions offering the courses say they are for other universities; they won't give credit for the courses to their own students.  Among these institutions is UC-Irvine. All the courses are in technical fields such as math. 

...No students at Irvine... will be able to take any of these courses for credit, though. Gary Matkin, UC-Irvine's dean of continuing education, distance learning and summer session...said UC-Irvine does not consider its Coursera courses, as currently constructed, to be worthy of its credit because "we do not control learning environment of these students.... There are 250,000 signups in our six courses, with open enrollment so anybody can sign up, and those anybodies can influence negatively the learning environment of students who are serious about taking it." ...

Full article at http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2013/02/07/ace-deems-5-massive-open-courses-worthy-credit

It's not clear how the "anybodies" can negatively influence the learning environment of others if each anybody is sitting alone at a computer in a separate location.  But in any case, the message seems to be that when it comes to giving credit, the host institution is saying to the course takers, let credit be given by someone else, not me:

Two Charts from the UCLA Anderson Forecast Worth Pondering

Economist says California at risk of losing its educational advantage

Timm Herdt, Ventura County Star, February 5, 2013

SACRAMENTO — A senior economist with UCLA’s Anderson Forecast warned lawmakers Tuesday that California is at risk of losing what has long been one of its top economic advantages, a workforce that is better educated than those in other states. Jerry Nickelsburg told members of an Assembly panel (that)… California still leads the nation in percentage of college-educated adults, calling that statistic “a reflection of our advantage in skills.” But Nickelsburg disclosed census data that shows the state’s advantage has disappeared among workers age 25 to 34. In that age category, the percentage of Californians with college degrees equals the national average, and the percentage of Californians with some college trails the national average. He predicted that development “could erode” California’s competitive advantage and lead to one of two results: Workers without college training will “leave California for Texas or some place where jobs are low-skilled and immigrants come in to take the skilled jobs, or we lose our educational advantage. “The trend in education makes California’s growth engine vulnerable,” he said…

Full story at http://www.vcstar.com/news/2013/feb/05/economist-says-california-at-risk-of-losing-its/

It's advice worth listening to from the Forecast or we can listen to something else:

Yale & Penn Sue Defaulting Students But UC Doesn't

From the LA Daily News:

Needy U.S. borrowers are defaulting on almost $1 billion in federal student loans earmarked for the poor, leaving schools such as Yale and the University of Pennsylvania with little choice except to sue their graduates. The record defaults on federal Perkins loans may jeopardize the prospects of current students since they are part of a revolving fund that colleges give to students who show extraordinary financial hardship. Yale, Penn and George Washington University have all sued former students over nonpayment, court records show... 

Repaying Perkins loans may be a lower priority for borrowers with multiple debts, said Nancy Coolidge, associate director of student financial support for the University of California system. They may be more likely to pay back private student loans first because they can carry much higher interest rates, she said. Perkins loans are given to the most at-risk students, and "they may have the least ability to pay it back," Coolidge said...

The University of California system tries to use its own personnel before suing Perkins debtors because balances are relatively small, said Coolidge. When borrowers don't have assets or income, winning a judgment doesn't actually result in collecting the money, she said. "It's not that we wouldn't do it," she said. "It's not that practical."

Full story at http://www.dailynews.com/breakingnews/ci_22530769/schools-sue-graduates-amid-record-defaults-federal-loans

If they ain't got it, it's hard to get it:

Don't Waste Your Money Listening to Social Scientists

House of Representatives Majority Leader Eric Cantor is anxious to cut funding for social sciences, especially poli sci, according to Inside Higher Ed today: 

Cantor... called for cutting federal funding for research in the social sciences, with the goal of "reprioritizing existing federal research spending," he said. "Funds currently spent by the government on social science – including on politics of all things – would be better spent helping find cures to diseases." In doing so, Cantor revived prior efforts by House Republicans to end federal funding for research that goes beyond basic medicine... 

Full story at http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2013/02/06/cantor-supports-rubio-wyden-salary-disclosure-act-criticizes-funding-political 

Oddly, these words were delivered at the American Enterprise Institute - which does social science research.  Would the study of "politics of all things" produce any insights on losing presidential elections?  On not being able to elect a candidate to any statewide office in California?  Just asking.