Too Much Pension News (and Some Useful Data)

The Regents Committee on Compliance and Audit is meeting via teleconference on Nov. 7 in advance of the general Regents meeting the following week. We will post the audio when it becomes available.

The agenda for the full Regents meeting has not been posted yet, but the Regents are likely to have some discussion related to the governor’s pension proposals.

Included in the Committee’s agenda is an audit of the pension plan. Below is a data summary taken from that audit. The full document is at:

http://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/regents/regmeet/nov11/a5attach4.pdf

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Summary statement for year ended June 30, 2011

Net assets $41.9 billion

Net investment gain $7.6 billion

Contributions $1.8 billion

Benefit payments (excluding member withdrawals and lump-sum cashouts) $1.8 billion

Plan administrative and other expenses $31.1 million

Active Membership

Senate Faculty and Non-Faculty Academics 22,991 members

Management/Senior Professional 8,842 members

Professional/Support Staff 83,735 members

Total 115,568 members

Average Annual Salary

Senate Faculty $117,972

Non-Faculty Academics $75,762

Management/Senior Professional $120,564

Professional/Support Staff $61,405

Average Age

Senate Faculty 50 years

Non-Faculty Academics 44 years

Management/Senior Professional 50 years

Professional/Support Staff 43 years

Inactive Membership/Other

Total 60,903 members

Retiree Membership

Faculty 5,187 retirees

Management/Senior Professional 7,049 retirees

Professional/Support Staff 35,007 retirees

Total 47,243 retirees

Average Retirement Age

Faculty 64 years

Management/Senior Professional 60 years

Professional/Support Staff 59 years

Average Service Credit at Retirement

Faculty 26 years

Management/Senior Professional 22 years

Professional/Support Staff 20 years

Average Annual UCRP Income

Faculty $72,809

Management/Senior Professional $52,834

Professional/Support Staff $28,730

Survivor/Beneficiary 6,969 recipients

Disabled 2,084 recipients

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There is much additional pension news floating around. Proponents of stricter pension changes than the governor is proposing have started the process of filing two initiatives. You can find them at:

http://ag.ca.gov/cms_attachments/initiatives/pdfs/i1007_11-0064_(pension_reform_v2).pdf

and

http://ag.ca.gov/cms_attachments/initiatives/pdfs/i1006_11-0063_(pension_reform_v1).pdf

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From Calpensions.com today comes:

…This time the group, now led by Dan Pellissier, raised $250,000 for polling and legal experts before filing initiatives designed to withstand court challenges and quickly cut government pension costs, particularly important for some struggling cities. He said the next step is to raise about $3 million, enough to pay for a drive to gather 1.3 million voter signatures and provide a cushion well above the minimum needed to place a state constitutional amendment on the ballot.

“Not today,” Pellissier said, when asked at a news conference if the group had the money. “But we have some commitments for future funding, and we have what we think is a good path in order to raise that amount of money.”

He said George Shultz, a former U.S. secretary of state in the Reagan administration, is a part of the campaign team and “has a tremendous amount of influence with major donors.” …

Full article at http://calpensions.com/2011/11/03/pension-initiative-faces-two-tests-funding-courts/

See also the Sacramento Bee account at:

http://www.sacbee.com/2011/11/03/4026758/ballot-proposals-seek-change-in.html

and

http://www.sacbee.com/2011/11/03/4026493/the-state-worker-former-gop-chair.html

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An official of another pension group wrote an op ed in yesterday’s LA Times in effect saying to public sector unions that they better go along with the governor’s plan or they will get worse via initiative. See:

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-fritz-pension-20111102,0,7172321.story

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You may well feel you have too much pension news. But there is bound to be more as time goes on.

Scoping! And you can attend

A session on the proposed and revised hotel/conference center will be held - where else? - at the UCLA Faculty Center. See notice below. RSVP by Nov. 9 to mrule@support.ucla.edu See earlier posts on this project.

Questions, Answers, & Comments Needed on Hotel/Conference Center

Now that we have arrived at the morning after on the hotel/conference center plan, it is important to consider what we don't know.

We don't yet have a business plan. So we don't have yearly projections of assumed revenues and expenditures. We don't know what assumptions are being made about the demand on campus for conferences and overnight stays. We don't know how the facility will be operated. Will it be staffed by UCLA employees? Contracted out?

There appeared to be an error in the initial press release about assumed future local area competitive hotel rates. What are the actual assumptions?

We do know that a large parking structure will be demolished. Exactly what are the parking plans for the displaced cars? We know there will be considerably fewer parking spots in the new project. Presumably, those new spots will be underground and expensive to construct. Will the costs be absorbed by the project in some way or will the costs be spread to all parkers around the campus through higher parking fees?

As was pointed out in the first round on this project, the Faculty Center - which now has been spared - has its own internal financial problems. Adding new conference facilities presumably will divert business from the Faculty Center, aggravating those problems. Were those impacts on the Faculty Center (or - for that matter - on other conference venues) modeled in formulating the new plan?

The site of the project, shown above, is opposite a municipal bus station. What happens to those buses during the construction period? There seemed to be a plan in fact for moving the bus station behind the Faculty Center to the central location. Is that plan now dead since the hotel/conference center won't be where the Faculty Center is?

So far, what we have is general assurances. We are told that there is plenty of campus parking so not to worry about the demolished parking structure. We are told that there will be so much campus conference activity that other venues and private area hotels won't be adversely affected. Indeed, local hotels will have more business. But assurances are not formal projections that can be independently evaluated.

There may well be more questions to be asked and blog readers should feel free to add comments and questions using the blog's comment option.

Bottom line to the project's planners. Are you sure? If so, let's see the numbers.

Hotel/Conference Center: We await details

We now know the general outlines of the hotel/conference center revised plan but the devil is in the details. We know the project is not replacing the Faculty Center. But at least one error in FAQ section - reproduced in the prior post - has been found. The earlier proposal for the Faculty Center site had a projected room rate of $360/day when put on a basis corresponding to what the recent FAQ response says would be $185 before inflation. But the FAQ put that number as $270, not $360. So there is an inconsistency, apparently, that someone will have to explain. And is it really likely that hotel room rates in the local area will almost double in nominal dollars in 4 years? That's a lot of inflation for a depressed economy - one which the UCLA Anderson forecast suggests will be with us for some time.

More generally, we lack the business plan. We don't yet have available a business plan that indicates, for example, what the assumed occupancy rate is projected to be. That rate matters a lot, given the size of the project: 250 rooms (down from 282, but still big). As the FAQ notes, the hotel/conference center cannot take commercial business. We don't know what kind of forecast of (overnight) UCLA conference activity is being made.

It is important that the project have a viable business plan. Otherwise, the campus in some way or other will pick up the losses. If the project displaces existing parking and new parking must be built, will the cost be shifted into overall parking rates? It will displace an existing parking structure, according to the info made available.

Presumably, someone will eventually make the detailed plan available. Sooner would be better than later. In the meantime, below is a photo of the location where the new hotel/conference center will be.


Update: The LA Times story on the plan is at http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-ucla-hotel-20111102,0,2528189.story

UCLA Hotel-Conference Center Plan Announced

As indicated in yesterday's post, UCLA has announced its plans for the hotel/conference center (which does not displace the Faculty Club). Below are some highlights:

Location: Central campus, at the end of Westwood Plaza near Pauley Pavilion, in the space currently occupied by Parking Structure 6

Projected Groundbreaking and Demolition: Summer 2013

Projected Completion: Winter 2016

Estimated Project Cost: Roughly $152 million ($40 million from UCLA donors Meyer and Renee Luskin and approximately $112 million in financing)

Square Feet of Meeting Space: 25,000

Number of Guest Rooms: 250

Number of Stories: Seven

Amenities: Restaurant, business center and fitness center

Planned Room Rate (based on today’s market): $185

Underground Parking Spots: 125

Press release http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/luskin-conference-center.aspx

From the FAQ section of http://luskinconferencecenter.ucla.edu/

Q: What about neighbors’ concerns?

A: We surveyed our neighbors and found no widespread opposition to the project, with concerns largely focused on traffic issues. In fact, we were very pleased to learn that our neighbors think we’re a good neighbor and that they have a very positive image of UCLA.

Q: Previously, UCLA said rates would be $270 per night. Why is it $185 now?

A: The previously referenced rate included food and conference fees and also factored in inflation, out to a completion date of 2015. This made for inaccurate comparisons with current hotel rates. The $185 rate applies to rooms only and represents what we would charge if the center was opened today, allowing for a fair and accurate comparison with existing area hotel rates.

Q: We’re visiting L.A. for our vacation. Can we get a room while we’re in town sightseeing?

A: No. All guests must have business with the university in order to book a reservation.

Q: What if an academic department wants to host a conference but can’t afford the center’s rates?

A: The Luskins have provided a $10 million endowment to assist academic departments in hosting conferences.

Quakers

CaliforniaWatch has an article on older concrete, and potentially earthquake-unsafe, buildings in the state (public and private) at http://californiawatch.org/dailyreport/new-seismic-inventory-identifies-potentially-unsafe-buildings-13334

The report links to the underlying survey at http://www.eeri.org/wp-content/uploads/Concrete_Coalition_Final_0911.pdf

Page 94 of the underlying survey says there are 12 such buildings at UCLA. A footnote with an incorrect link cites an earlier report on the subject of earthquake-unsafe buildings that listed a larger number of UCLA structures (not all of which are on the Westwood campus). Below is the earlier listing and the correct link to its source:

Seismically hazardous buildings in the UC system 3/17/11

• UCLA: Center for Health Sciences - Jules Stein Eye Institute
• UCLA: Center for Health Sciences - Marion Davies Children's Cent
• UCLA: Center for Health Sciences - Neuropsychiatric Institute (low-rise)
• UCLA: Center for Health Sciences - Outpatient Wing
• UCLA: Center for Health Sciences - Parking Structure E
• UCLA: Center for Health Sciences - School of Public Health
• UCLA: Center for Health Sciences courtyards
• UCLA: Center for Health Sciences Medical Center - South Tower
• UCLA: Clark Library
• UCLA: Clark Library Gatehouse
• UCLA: Darling Biomedical Library
• UCLA: Faculty Weyburn Apartments
• UCLA: Geffen School of Medicine East, Vivarium
• UCLA: Geffen School of Medicine West
• UCLA: Mira Hershey Hall (1931 Building)
• UCLA: Parking Structure 8
• UCLA: Reed Neurological Research Center Bridge
• UCLA: Santa Monica Medical Center - West Hospital Tower
• UCLA: Strathmore Bridge
• UCLA: University Extension (LeConte)

From http://californiawatch.org/higher-ed/map-seismically-hazardous-buildings-uc-system

Halt or I'll Compute!

UCLA mathematicians devise an algorithm based on data from the Los Angeles Police Department for the Hollenbeck area east of downtown

Joel Rubin, Los Angeles Times, October 31, 2011

A team of UCLA researchers has delved again into the world of crime fighting, this time developing a computer program capable of pointing police to potential suspects when feuds between rival gangs erupt into violence. The work is the latest contribution in the fast-emerging field of predictive policing — a broad area of study rooted in the notion that it is possible, through sophisticated computer analysis of information about previous crimes, to predict where and when crimes will occur or, in this case, to calculate the probability a certain gang committed a crime.

Some of the most ambitious work is being done at UCLA, where researchers are concentrating largely on the ways criminals behave in urban settings…

Full story at http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-ucla-gang-computer-20111101,0,563462.story

If only Sgt. Friday had known: