Revenues to the state's general fund were $4.2 billion ahead of the projections made just last January when the governor made his budget proposal for next year. They were $10.1 billion ahead of what was projected last June when the budget for the current year was enacted.
Of course, that's not cash free and clear, since under Prop 98 a good chunk of the overage will go by formula to K-14. But better overage than underage, particularly for UC which is pushing for more than the governor wants to give.
So what's the problem at this point? It's the outlook and, more precisely, the uncertainty about the outlook. Income tax receipts make up the bulk of the two overages. And such receipts are backward looking, i.e., based on what people - mainly high-income people - owed based on past incomes. Trump-shock - tariffs, etc., - makes forecasting difficult. Capital gains from the stock market looking forward may not be there to the extent they were pre-shock. Another complicating factor is that tax returns and estimated tax payments from LA County that were normally due in April don't have to be filed for several months due to the fires.
You can see the controller's figures through March at:
https://sco.ca.gov/Files-ARD/CASH/March2025StatementofGeneralFundCashReceiptsandDisbursements.pdf.
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