The UCLA Anderson Forecast met yesterday morning to present its Fall economic projections and talk about the issue of adaptation, especially in California, to climate change and such events as wildfires and ocean encroachment.
There is no recession projected for California or the US:
...(The) employment picture leads to a relatively weak California forecast for 2024 and a slow return to the national unemployment rate. Much of the weakness should resolve by the end of 2025 and ought to lead to higher growth rates through the rest of the three-year forecast, though labor force constraints could be exacerbated by more restrictive immigration policies.
The housing market in California may well be on the cusp of a trend toward normalization. Lower mortgage rates and the passage of time should begin to free up the existing single-family home market. The latest data, from August 2024, reflect a market that is still at depression levels. However, those data are derived from home sales that have been under contract for one or more months. It is likely that November and December 2024 home sales will reflect the new lower mortgage rates.
The California economy is expected to grow faster than the national economy in 2025 and 2026, but not by much. The risks to the forecast are political and geopolitical, and, on the downside, the interest rates could potentially still disrupt the current expansion and, on the upside, international immigration and accelerated onshoring of technical manufacturing could increase growth...
The fact that there has been no recession suggests that the current state budget semi-crisis is more a matter of prior exuberance by the legislature than a dip in economic activity. If indeed there is a pickup over the next two years, the process of adjustment can more easily occur with some benefits to the UC budget.
You can see the full presentation of the forecast and the climate material at the link below:
Or direct to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSGeay9PYS8.
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