Mixed News on the Transfer Base

UC's "compact" with the state assumes certain transfer targets from the community colleges. But the community colleges lost enrollment during the pandemic and they have not fully recovered. EdSource has a mix of good news and bad news on that score:

After years of pandemic declines, enrollment at California’s community colleges may finally be starting to rebound in a significant way. Several colleges across the state, from San Diego to San Jose, are reporting that their enrollments are up by double digit percentages this fall. Statewide data for the fall isn’t yet available, but enrollment in the spring was up 8% across the system of 116 colleges, according to a memo prepared by the state chancellor’s office. College officials cited the expansion of dual enrollment and more interest in career-focused programs as being among the main drivers of the enrollment growth.

“In conversations with CEOs for fall 2023, I’m hearing good news, positive trends. And in fact, many of the districts are telling me that they’re seeing double-digit enrollment growth,” Sonya Christian, the statewide chancellor for the system, told the system’s board of governors Tuesday.

Given that, the memo prepared by the chancellor’s office says the system now has “a meaningful positive enrollment outlook for the first time in over five years.”

Still, enrollment across the system as of the spring was down 16% compared to pre-pandemic levels. And although the colleges are seeing big increases in dual enrollment and more enrollments from some older students, other students have not returned. Among students between the ages of 20 and 24, enrollment was down 27% as of the spring compared with pre-Covid levels. It was also down 22% among students between the ages of 25 and 34...

Full story at https://edsource.org/2023/why-enrollment-is-rebounding-at-californias-community-colleges/697875.

Note that older students and those pursuing vocational objectives are unlikely to be part of the transfer base.