The rumor mill continues to spin after the Regents delayed their decision on UCLA's move to the Big Ten. Excerpt from the Mercury News:
The New York Times reported the Pac-12 is willing to pay [a] $15 million exit fee to the Big Ten and give UCLA larger payouts for staying put. The report also says the Pac-12’s media rights are estimated to be 10 percent lower than the initial $42 million to $47 million projections. Are you hearing the same?
The Hotline [has] not confirmed the exit fee. Nor are we convinced the financial and legal entanglements would end with a $15 million check. However, the media rights range cited by the NYT meshes with our reporting. The conference expected a deal in excess of $40 million per school if UCLA reversed course because of competition (among TV networks) for access to the Los Angeles market. And as the Hotline explained weeks ago, the Big 12’s decision to sign an early renewal with Fox and ESPN — and accept below-market valuations — lowered the floor for the Pac-12.
Essentially, it established a benchmark for networks to use to drive down the price. In our view, there are three valuation ranges for the Pac-12 without UCLA:
— High: $35 million-to-$40 million per school
— Medium: $32 million-to-$35 million per school
— Low: $29 million-to-$32 million per school
...We continue to believe that a reversal [by the Regents of UCLA's move to the Big 10] is highly unlikely. If anything, the odds have gotten a tad longer: Were there enough votes to overturn the decision, it would be clear at this point.
As a result, our updated projections are the following:
85 percent: Regents express disappointment; do nothing
10 percent: Regents require UCLA to subsidize Cal for lost revenue
4 percent: Regents force a reversal
1 percent: UCLA reverses willingly after Pac-12 offers a cash carrot
Until that 85 percent becomes 100 percent, the Hotline will continue to cover the developments...
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