As blog readers will know, we follow California new weekly claims for unemployment benefits as an indicator of the state of the economy and labor market. That measure is still at pre-pandemic levels, as the chart shows. But it is showing a bit of an uptick. The uptick could be just statistical noise. Or it could be the start of the much-awaited slowdown or even recession. There has been a steady flow of anecdotal evidence of job cuts and hiring freezes in the high tech sector, which - of course - is important in California. We will see.
As always, the latest data are at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.
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https://ia601402.us.archive.org/25/items/big-ten/maybe%20uptick.mp3
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