Last week when we reviewed new weekly California claims for unemployment benefits, there were indications of progress, i.e., falling claims for a couple of weeks. However, in the week ending December 4, the progress was reversed. The same occurred at the national level when data that were not seasonally adjusted were used. (The Dept. of Labor does not seasonally adjust state-level data.) If the seasonal factors at the national level are applied to the California data - which is not quite right to do because California weather patterns differ from the rest of the U.S. - the California numbers continue to fall. Apart from the California-U.S. differences, there are questions about the validity of seasonal adjustment since the pandemic has changed economic behavior.
We noted in an earlier post that the UCLA Anderson Forecast suggests that the appearance of the Omicron variant has slowed the pace of recovery in the state. So, at the moment, things are uncertain. We will continue to watch the numbers, the latest of which can, as always, be found at:
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