We have been tracking new California weekly claims for unemployment insurance as an indicator of the condition of the labor market and the pace of economic recovery. For weeks now, we have been stuck at new weekly claims stuck around 60,000 through the week ending July 31 when full recovery would be around 40,000. As we have also noted, we are in a fiscal year when the condition of the state budget is somewhat disengaged from the underlying economy. But eventually, we will need a good underlying economy to support the state - and therefore the UC - budget. And right now, the economy is not roaring back - at least on this indicator.
As always, the latest data on weekly claims are at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.
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