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Thursday, August 6, 2020

End of the Beginning - Part 10 (Maybe)

We have been looking at the weekly new claims for unemployment insurance that seemed to suggest over the past few weeks that the economy's recovery had stalled out. The latest data through the week ending August 1 does suggests a drop in new claims, so maybe we can revert to our end-of-the-beginning title.

Below are the latest charts:
[Click on image to clarify.]
New weekly claims fell from 1.4 million to 1.2 million, seasonally adjusted. Without adjustment, they dropped from 1.2 million to 1 million. The total number collecting unemployment insurance lags by a week. California remains disproportionately represented in the total. (And, if you have been following the news, you will know that there are increasing complaints that the processing of claims in California has overwhelmed the system and many claimants are either having difficulties in filing or in actual receipt of benefits.)

The latest release is always at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.

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