Estimates of the total number of folks actually receiving benefits lag by a week. For the week ending July 4th, there was an uptick in recipients (so more people entered the system than left). Seasonally-adjusted data show a decrease. Of course, the data used for seasonal adjustment are based on normal historical trends and we are not in a normal period because of the coronavirus crisis. In any event, those hoping for a V-shaped recovery - this particular set of indicators suggest - are in for a disappointment. We will see as the summer quarter progresses.
[Click on image to clarify and enlarge.] |
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