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Thursday, May 14, 2020

Cash Before the Storm

While we wait for the governor to present his May Revise budget later today, we can review the latest cash statement from the state controller. During the current fiscal year through the end of April, personal income tax receipts were $72.1 billion, $11.3 billion below what was projected when the current year's budget was enacted last June. That gap is not surprising since the state deferred the deadline for filing income tax until July as a result of the coronavirus crisis.

Total revenue, however, was only $1.8 billion below what was projected. The gap from the income tax delay was offset by a $9.5 billion infusion from the CARES Act, i.e., from the federal government due to the crisis.

Obviously, the background for the May Revise is grim. Unless Congress comes to some agreement, significantly more federal infusions will not occur. But it isn't impossible that some kind of federal deal will be reached. There may be more federal funding. Moreover, the controller's report indicates that there is $44.4 billion in "unused borrowable resources" in state cash on hand (including the rainy day fund). That amount is less than what we had on hand last year at this time (largely a reflection of the gap between the delayed income tax and the federal funding).

As we have noted in previous posts, there are one-time things the state can do with the cash it has available to cushion - not fully offset - the impact of the current crisis. Much depends on 1) a better reading of current resources after July when the income tax is due, and 2) what additional money - if any - may come from the feds. In the longer term, much depends on whether there is a relatively quick recovery (which in part depends on the unknown course of the infection rate and the development of a vaccine) or whether we instead have a long-term, sluggish recovery. One-time budgetary strategies are just that, available once.

The latest cash statement is at https://sco.ca.gov/Files-ARD/CASH/April2020StatementofGeneralFundCashReceiptsandDisbursements.pdf

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