Wednesday, June 10, 2015

About what was predicted, plus or minus

The latest data on state cash flows have appeared. Of course, the main issue for the budget at this point is what revenues will be for the coming year (starting July 1). Legislators complain that the governor uses "conservative" revenue projections to hold down spending. Then, if more money comes in, it effectively is just a "surprise" addition to state reserves. The legislative Democrats prefer the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) more optimistic projections.

What the current cash data, which now contain 11 of the 12 months of fiscal 2014-15, show is that the projection used by the governor for fiscal 2014-15 in his May Revise is about right for the year so far. That's not surprising since the projection was made with 10 of the 12 months already known. And there could be a June surprise. But the cash flow data don't do much for either side at this point. They do show the effects of the recovering economy. Last year at this time, revenues were $86.8 billion. This time the number is $97.5 billion. That's about a 12% nominal increase which is big.

The controller's cash report is at

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