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Sunday, February 23, 2025

It may seem off in the horizon, but the future lies ahead


Maybe you remember the scene above from the movie Chinatown. Or maybe you don't. But the future does lie ahead, including for the state budget. From an email by Jason Sisney of the Legislative Analyst's Office:

One of California’s voter-approved marginal tax rates for higher-income personal income tax (PIT) filers expires at the end of 2030. Absent legislative or voter action to extend these taxes, the state budget then will lose perhaps more than $10 billion of annual tax revenue. Compared to budgets under current tax law, deficits would increase by several billion dollars per year, and guaranteed school funding would decline by several billion dollars. From a perspective of prudent planning for tax and fiscal policy, a decision to extend the current taxes, modify them, or let them expire ideally would be made a few years prior to 2030...

Proposition 30 Approved in 2012. Proposition 30 was one of the key measures that boosted California state finances out of their Great Recession mess. Approved by 55% of voters at the November 2012 election, this initiative amended the State Constitution to temporarily increase the state sales tax for all taxpayers and personal income (PIT) tax rates for single filers with over $250,000 of income and joint filers with over $500,000 of income.

Proposition 55 Approved in 2016. In November 2016, a new initiative, Proposition 55, amended the State Constitution again to extend Proposition 30’s PIT rate increases for upper-income taxpayers to 2030. (Proposition 55 did not extend Proposition 30’s sales tax rate increase, which expired at the end of 2016.) Proposition 55 passed with approval by 63% of voters.

A drop in revenues by $10 billion per annum would likely affect UC's budget allocation.

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