Forecast Lessons from the Past and for the Present

Earlier today, the UCLA Anderson Forecast conference presented its quarterly projections of the U.S. and California economies.  No surprises.  There was a continued forecast (from earlier conferences) of sluggish growth with years to go before what can be truly seen as a return to “normal” occurs.  You can find a media write up at: http://business-news.thestreet.com/daily-news/story/ucla-forecast-economy-lag-3-more-years-high-unemployment-slow-growth-impede-progress/1

An official media release from the Forecast is at:
http://uclaforecast.com/contents/archive/2012/media_62012_1.asp

The Forecast reminded me of two lessons that can be drawn from recent developments.  The first – from the past - is that there is an underlying problem in California which can be seen in two charts that appear regularly in the Forecast publication that is distributed to conference attendees.

To the left is a chart that shows the old – golden-age-of-California employment trend that came to a halt when the Cold War dissolved.  In an important sense, the state has not adjusted to the resulting recession of the early 1990s – and has had on-and-off budget crises since.  Expectations for public services seem to run along the old trend.  But reality is deviating further and further below those expectations.

The next chart looks at both employment and population in the state as a percent of national totals.  California is now more or less a normal growth state, not expanding any faster than the U.S. as a whole on either measure (in contrast to the old trend before the Cold War ended) when California was becoming a larger and larger fraction of the U.S.  Moreover, employment relative to population has declined; fewer active workers are supporting more non-workers (children, elderly retirees, and those who can’t find work or don’t work for some other reason).  Nothing on these two charts suggests a bright outlook for state support for UC.

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Then there is the Forecast conference itself, which brings hundreds of people to campus and provides a lesson for the present.  See the two cellphone photos below.  The Forecast’s guests fitted nicely into the Grand Ballroom of Ackerman, suggesting – contrary to those who insist otherwise – that you can find conference space on campus.  

Apart from that observation, and more important, if the Grand Hotel project – now slated to be just across the street from Ackerman – is built, the Forecast conference might well go there.  And if it does, might that not reduce demand for Ackerman’s space?  And if that happens - and ASUCLA ends up needing support - won’t the campus end up doing the bailout?  The Forecast – and other events at Ackerman – can’t occupy two sites; if they move to a new location, the move takes away business from some other older location.

Finally, putting together future, present, and past, is a 250-room hotel what UCLA absolutely needs now as a top priority?