Friday, November 16, 2012
More Prop 30 Election Post Mortem
It appears that the answer is yes and no. The Field Poll now reports that it underestimated the youth vote when it made its calculation of likely voters. Pollsters routinely adjust their samples to try and get at who will actually show up on Election Day. Field did not anticipate a late surge of youth voters. But in examining the impact of such voters, it appears that Prop 30 would have passed without the youth surge, albeit by a narrower margin.
An analysis appears in the Sacramento Bee's Capitol Alert blog:
Young voters certainly disproportionately favored Prop 30. But it was older voters who were young at heart that passed it: