Thursday, July 30, 2020

Stall Warning - Part 3

You will have seen headlines about the incredible decline of real GDP in the second quarter. (If not, Google it.) However, we continue to look at new weekly claims for unemployment insurance as the most recent indicator. Such claims - as of the week ended last Saturday - at the national level on a seasonally-adjusted basis have been stuck at about 1.4 million for awhile which suggests a stall in the recovery. In terms of total folks receiving benefits, those data are available only without seasonal adjustment and with a one-week lag. California accounted for about a fifth of those individuals, way more than its proportionate share of the workforce. In short, no good news today.

You can find the latest weekly claims data at
[Click on image to enlarge and clarify.]

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