Tuesday, June 10, 2014

We have the data for 11/12ths of 2013-14

The state controller has released the cash statement through May (so there is only one month to go in the 2013-14 fiscal year.  The data therein tell a mixed story as a backdrop for legislative budget discussions.  Compared to last year at this time, revenues are down and spending is up.  The general fund reserve is -$8.5 billion.  (Yes, that's a minus which means that the state would need to have revenue > spending in June by over $8.5 billion to end the fiscal year in the black.)  Last year at this time, the reserve was -$7.5 billion and the June numbers were not enough to put the account in the black; the reserve was -$2.4 billion at the end of the 2013-14 fiscal year.  All of this news would tend to put a damper on whatever prospects there were for UC to get more in 2014-15 than the governor has proposed.

On the other hand, the reserve is less negative than had been forecast in the governor's budget estimates that were made as part of his proposal for a 2014-15 budget.  Perhaps the legislature might view that fact as positive news.

Sadly, as we have noted in the past, the budget numbers in budget proposals and legislative budget enactments are in some version of accrual accounting as opposed to the actual cash flows reported by the controller and no reconciliation is ever provided. 

In any case, you can find the cash statement through May at:

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