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Saturday, January 8, 2011

Will Controller's Report Undermine Brown Budget Strategy?

Gov. Brown will release his budget on Monday. Meanwhile, the state controller has issued figures on the state's cash receipts and expenditures through December, i.e., half way through the fiscal year. The figures show revenues up almost a billion dollars relative to projections made when the budget was signed (late). You can find the figures and analyses at :

http://www.sco.ca.gov/Files-ARD/CASH/fy1011dec.pdf

http://www.sco.ca.gov/Files-EO/01-11summary.pdf

There will be a temptation to say the fiscal problem is over or is getting better or will take care of itself. If so, the strategy of presenting a Budget from Hell and then putting tax extensions on the ballot by June to avert it could be undermined.

The difficulty is that absent the tax extensions, the state will run big deficits next year and has a legacy carryover of debt of about $6 billion. On verra.

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