Until about 1990, California was on a rapid population growth trend, faster than the rest of the US. If we had remained on the old trend, there would be 30 million more people in California today than there actually are. But after 1990, the end of the Cold War and decline of aerospace-military spending in the state led to California converting to an average growth state. After 2020, the projections suggest zero growth (slower than the rest of the US). There are many ramifications of this shift. A rapid growth rate allows a certain budgetary laxness since more of X doesn't mean less of Y. The pie keeps expanding. Zero growth, in contrast, tends to make things zero sum.
All of the discussion in the state about higher ed enrollment has to be seen in the context of this change in outlook. Fewer students will need to be accommodated than under a rapid growth scenario. The current tendency to push against having out-of-state students could reverse. We can already see the model shifting faster than policy. UC is under pressure to take more community college transfers. But enrollment in community colleges fell during the pandemic and hasn't returned to the pre-pandemic trend.
PPIC has various publications out dealing with population growth projections worth looking at, e.g.:
All of these developments require something we have called for in prior postings, a new Master Plan for Higher Ed.
No comments:
Post a Comment