The California Dept. of Finance has put out some charts on cash receipts of the state's General Fund. Note that the word "Forecast" refers to the forecast made when the current budget for fiscal year 2025-25 was made. So "Forecast" and "Actual" are identical until June 2025 (2025-06). Starting in June, forecast revenues fall short of the actual receipts. See above.
As the chart above shows, the extra revenue that has come in relative to Forecast starting in 2025-06 is essentially receipts from the personal income tax. That result suggests that the state is receiving capital gains estimates related to the stock market and the AI boom. Booms can turn to busts, as the dot.com boom did in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
The complete set of charts is at:
https://dof.ca.gov/media/docs/forecasting/economics/economic-and-revenue-updates/Finance-Bulletin-October-2025-Charts.pdf.
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