The Forecast

Yours truly usually attends the UCLA Anderson Forecast but was in transit last Thursday when the June forecast was presented. But he was able to catch up via the YouTube/Zoom recording.

The forecast for the US and California didn't directly get into the state budget implications of projected economic trends. But the forecast is continuing to suggest a slowdown - not a recession - in 2024 and then a gradual pickup in the outer years. Of course, the outer years are dependent on a variety of noneconomic factors such as the outcome of the 2024 elections, developments in the Middle East, etc.

The current California slowdown reflects some sectoral issues such as reduced demand in Hollywood that take time to readjust to, and some of the tech layoffs that may be relieved more quickly due to AI-related investments now occurring.

Working out these processes suggest that the budget will be squeezed for the immediate future. Note, for example, that income taxes that are due in April 2025 will be based on economic conditions in 2024. 

You can see the June forecast at the link below:

Or direct to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67v044aoqYg.