Adding it all up

Yesterday, we noted that while we don't have a definitive final version of the UC part of the state budget accord, we would look at the macro perspective. Below is a table comparing the governor's May Revise, the legislature's proposal at some point in the process, and then the final deal. We remind readers that budgets are forecasts and projections. So what is on paper today is unlikely to be the result a year from now. But in broad terms, this year ends with a significant deficit due in part to large overestimates of revenue which, in turn, were due in part to delayed income tax receipts making it hard to estimate what revenues would be.

Although the budget for the coming 2024-25 fiscal year will undoubtedly be described as "balanced," it in fact pull down total reserves associated with the general fund by over $4 billion, i.e., a deficit of that amount. The deal in fact results in a bigger deficit than the original legislative proposal and the May Revise, but all proposals pull down reserves and are thus deficit budgets. What happens to the general state of the economy and the stock market will influence what actually happens as opposed to what's projected.

Budget Data - $Millions

Source: https://jasonsisney.substack.com/p/governor-and-legislative-leaders-588. We have rearranged the figures. In the case of the Balance GF-End figure for 2024-25, there is a difference between the figure shown above and the figures on the original table of $10 million. Possibly, there is a typo that accounts for the difference.