Goldilocks?

Our weekly look at new California weekly claims for unemployment insurance continues to show no signs of recession. And we find in addition that Fed economists are now projecting a "Goldilocks" future in which the economy is not too hot and not too cold.

The US economy may just skirt a recession after all and most of the effects of rate hikes have already taken shape, according to Stefania D'Amico and Thomas King, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. In a new September report, they argued that the 11 rate hikes since March of 2022 have put the economy on track for a Goldilocks scenario of a soft landing, and there may no longer be a need for further monetary policy tightening...

Full story at https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-reserve-economists-goldilocks-recession-inflation-economy-markets-powell-investors-2023-9.

As always, the latest claims data are at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.