Once a week, we look at new weekly claims for unemployment insurance in California for signs of the much-rumored recession. But despite the continuing rumors, and despite the headlines about tech layoffs, nothing shows up in the claims data; we're still running at pre-pandemic (boom) levels, at least by that measure.
The UCLA Anderson Forecast will produce its next prognostications in mid-March, so we'll see then what the outlook seems to be from that perspective.
As always, the latest claims data are at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.
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You can watch former UCLA Anderson Forecast Director Ed Leamer interviewed on Feb. 16 by yours truly and then his presentation to a group of emeriti and retirees on the recession outlook at:
https://ia601406.us.archive.org/20/items/forecast-2011/Leamer-Mitchell%20Emeriti%26Retirees%20Assn%20video%202-16-2023.ia.mp4 (with video - limited slide visibility)
https://ia601406.us.archive.org/20/items/forecast-2011/Leamer-Mitchell%20Emeriti%26Retirees%20Assn%20slides%202-16-2023.mp4 (slides only - no sound).
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