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Monday, December 12, 2022

It Depends on How You Look at Things

Next month, the governor will release his budget proposal for fiscal year 2022-23, which means that by now it is probably getting close to final form. The state controller issues cash statements each month and released the statement through November during the past weekend.*

If you wanted to argue for a more expansive budget, you could point to two things from that report. As shown in the chart below, actual revenues received through November were running ahead of the projection made when the budget for the current fiscal year was enacted. Most of that extra revenue is coming from the state's personal income and corporation taxes.

In addition, unused borrowable resources - money in state coffers that includes the various reserves for the general fund but also other funds that can be tapped for internal borrowing - are also running ahead of projection and are over $92 billion, an incredible total, and are way ahead of where they were a year ago. 


On the other hand, if you are looking for reasons to put forward a tight budget proposal, you could point to the fact that revenues are below where they were last year at this time. Of course, you could also point to current economic uncertainties and forecasts of slowdows or possibly a recession.

So far, the governor has tended to focus on the negatives and thus is likely to be less generous than last year in his forthcoming fiscal proposal. Thus, for example, if UC were to ask for a substantial revenue bump to settle the current strike, it might not get a welcome reception from the governor. Of course, the January budget proposal is just that - a proposal. Ultimately, it is the legislature that enacts budgets. And the outlook in June when the budget must be enacted could be significantly different than it is now.

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*https://sco.ca.gov/Files-ARD/CASH/November2022StatementofGeneralFundCashReceiptsandDisbursements.pdf.

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To hear the text above AND A MUSICAL FINALE, click on the link below:

https://ia801402.us.archive.org/25/items/big-ten/look%20at%20things.mp3

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