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Monday, August 22, 2022

A bit of selection bias?

The online 247sports newsletter apparently filed a Public Records Act request with UCLA for emails related to the move to the Big Ten. In response, it got a collection of emails from sports fans. All the ones reproduced in the newsletter article objected to the move. 

It's a bit hard to believe that there were no emails favorable to the move, although the article asserts that there were none. What is interesting is that the comments by readers on the online article - as opposed to those quoted in the newsletter - overwhelmingly FAVORED the move. They pointed to such considerations as the fact that USC was going to move anyway and that fans would want to see UCLA play USC. 

What that suggests is that those folks who were sufficiently moved to email the chancellor were people who - for whatever reason - were angered by the decision. There may well be selection bias in who chose to send in emails. Here is an excerpted version of the article, followed by some reader comments on the website:

Records reveal fan-driven blowback from UCLA's exit of Pac-12

by Chris Hummer

“It always seems impossible until it’s done.” – Nelson Mandela

Those were the words written under Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren’s email signature when he received UCLA Chancellor Gene Block’s application to the Big Ten on Thursday, June 30 at 9:42 am P.T. (according to an email acquired by 247Sports via an Open Records Request). 

It had, in fact, seemed impossible. The bombshell news that UCLA and USC planned to leave the Pac-12 for the Big Ten ahead of the 2024-25 season would not break until more than half an hour later at 10:23 a.m., but by then the work was done. The two Los Angeles-based Pac-12 programs had been snatched away from the Pac-12, seemingly in an instant.

Like the news of Texas and Oklahoma leaving the Big 12 a year prior, UCLA and USC departing the Pac-12 took everyone by surprise, including the Pac-12’s commissioner George Kliavkoff.

247Sports acquired more than 160 pages of emails from UCLA from between the dates of June 27-July 1 as part of an ongoing open records request, and while those emails don’t shed much light on the Bruins’ process of negotiating with the Big Ten, they do provide a window into the blowback within the UCLA community that’s since sprung because of the move.

...At a meeting of the University of California Board of Regents, a pair of regents went as far as to suggest it could block UCLA from joining the Big Ten. California governor Gavin Newsom has also railed against the move and the secrecy in which it took place. And it did certainly happen behind closed doors.

At 4:30 pm PT on June 30, UCLA Athletics Director Martin Jarmond emailed a group of UCLA professors and deans making things, well, officially official. He gave the group a 10-minute notice – with a heavy dose of confidential tags at the top – that UCLA would indeed be moving on from the Pac-12.

“After careful consideration and thoughtful deliberation, UCLA has decided to leave the Pac-12 Conference and join the Big Ten Conference at the start of the 2024-25 season,” the mass email read.

The blowback to the decision came swiftly after that (247Sports is choosing not to include the names of the emailers). Also, it's important to note that of the dozens of emails 247Sports received in its request, none of them praised UCLA's move to the Big Ten. 

One of the first emails Block received after the news was blasted systemwide at 4:40 p.m. came via an employee from the school's registrar office. “Careful and thoughtful consideration which did not involve the UCLA community and is a complete shock to the whole country,” the emailer wrote. “100+ years of conference history thrown away. This is an outrageous disgrace.” That tone toward Block and Jarmond was a regular theme in the emails 247Sports acquired. As one UCLA undergrad said: “Shame on y’all.” Said one UCLA alumnus: “I sincerely hope the reports that UCLA is considering joining the Big 10 Conference are false. It would be a terrible idea.” Said another UCLA alumnus: “If the rumors of UCLA’s move to the Big-10 are true, it is a sad day for college sports. Many alums are not enthused by this latest, soulless money grab. Count me out.”

Said somebody who identified as a 1972 graduate of UCLA: “Please provide ALL DETAILS of the horrendously dumb decision to toss UCLA out of the Pac12 and into the HIDEOUS BIG 10 WITHOUT FIRST CONSULTING ALUMNI OR THE STUDENT BODY. How dumb can an administrator GET? What does Block think he is, a Supreme Court despot?!”

One alumnus of the University of California system and a nurse at UCLA health sent an extensive email to Block in reaction to the news of UCLA leaving the Pac-12 in which he expressed his disappointment and said he planned to hold his $20,000 athletics pledge...

Another emailer asked two questions of the UCLA officials:

-How is the planned move to the Big Ten consistent with UCLA’s commitment to the health, well-being, and academic success of its student athletes?

-How is the planned move to the Big Ten consistent with the commitment by UCLA, the UC System and the State of California to sustainability to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

None of the other emails 247Sports received as part of its open records request included replies. But this one elicited a response within the school between Professor Eric M. V. Hoek and Chief Sustainability Officer Nurit Katz, who responded to Hoek’s internal reply confirming the sustainability concerns and offering to work with those within the school “...toward solutions to the issues he raises.”

Said Katz to Hoek: I received a number of similar inquiries today from other alumni and alerted our media relations and our sustainability liaison for Athletics, Derek Doolittle. I would ordinarily work with them on the response and talking points for media (which Director Jarmond and others will review), but I would welcome you working with us. Now that the concern has been raised to the Chancellor we will also prepare an official response on behalf of the Chancellor.” ...

Full story at https://247sports.com/Article/UCLAs-exit-of-Pac-12-records-reveal-unhappiness-within-program-191756260/.

As noted above, the comments fans made on this article went in another direction. That response could also contain selection bias. Folks who disagreed with the thrust of the article may have felt more impelled to comment than those who agreed or didn't care.

Here are some examples:

"When it comes to joining the [Big Ten], UCLA was just along for the ride. I doubt UCLA staying behind will affect USC's decision to leave the Pac-12. How are UCLA fans going to like it when they no longer play USC every season? Also, if the people in California think UCLA staying behind is going to save the Pac-11, then I think they are mistaken."

"Maybe all the complainers can pool their money and make up the 70 million [dollar] yearly bump up in revenue to the AD's office created by joining the [Big Ten]. Also, when did the teachers and administrators become such huge supporters of UCLA football? UH, never. Everyone that understands the current college sports landscape knows this was the best and possibly only move to secure a strong future for all UCLA sports."

"Did any of these people screaming tradition know that (the) UCLA athletic Department has now lost more than $100 million over three years? Emotional reactions based off no fiscal knowledge."

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