Still No Sign of Economic Decline or Slowdown

On a weekly basis, we look at new weekly claims for unemployment benefits in California as a guide to state labor market and more general economic conditions. The figures remain in the pre-pandemic range and so do not indicate a slowdown or recession is occurring. As many have noted, there seems to be contradictory information coming from the standard economic indicators. First quarter real GDP declined. We are awaiting second quarter figures. Some forecasters have suggested a weak or possibly negative report from that measure. We will see.

As always, the latest claims data are at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.