Preliminary Budget Analysis

The governor signed the new state budget for fiscal year 2022-23 on June 30 and it is now up on the Dept. of Finance website, cheery cover and all.* Complete details, however, have yet to be posted and are said to be "coming soon."

As we noted in an earlier post, the details will be important in analyzing what UC got out of the deal agreed to by the governor and legislative leaders.** There is no indication that the governor used his line-item veto on anything, a reflection of the one-party system now characteristic of Sacramento. When the governor and the Democratic legislative leaders make a deal, there is essentially nothing to veto.

The table below summarizes the General Fund (GF) budget's evolution:

The first column on the left shows the estimate for the past fiscal year (2021-22). Note that when compared to the enacted budget for the current fiscal year, there is anticipated to be less revenue and lower expenditures in nominal terms than in the past year. With inflation, of course, the drop is larger. Note also that total reserves fell last year and are projected to fall this year. Thus, there is a deficit in both years. However, because of the large accumulation of reserves in the past, we still have a relatively large reserve of around 18% of expenditures at the end of the current year. It would take a very big recession to get us to a budget crisis in the current year. 

What we see on the table above is first importance of the personal income tax in state finance. The tax accounts for over 6 out of 10 dollars flowing into the general fund. The tax is highly sensitive to the income fluctuations of the top tier of state taxpayers and thus particularly sensitive to boom and bust in the state economy as well as the ups and downs of financial markets. Over 95% of state revenue comes from the personal income tax, the sales tax, and the corporation tax. 

From January to May, it became apparent that the three taxes were going to produce more revenue than originally projected for the past year. So, projections for revenue were ramped up (along with expenditures) during that interval. On the other hand, the governor dropped his estimate of starting reserves for the current year in his May Revise budget (ending reserves for the past year), perhaps as a negotiating tactic to limit the legislature's spending desires. The legislative leaders, however, came back with their own estimates and it appears that in macro terms, the governor largely conceded to their version of what the budget should be.

As noted, it is best to wait for more details on the UC budget. There are some mentions of UCLA activities in the document now posted:

Institute for Immunology and Immunotherapy—An increase of $500 million one-time General Fund over a three-year period ($200 million in 2022-23, with an additional $200 million in 2023-24 and $100 million in 2024-25 planned for this purpose) to establish the Institute for Immunology and Immunotherapy at UCLA, bringing together academics and researchers for collaborative research to maintain California’s leading edge in biotechnology. 

UC Labor Centers—An increase of $13 million ongoing General Fund to support the operations of existing UC Labor Centers and Occupational Safety and Health Programs, and invest in similar new initiatives throughout the UC system. [The Centers are split between Berkeley and UCLA.]

Research on Economic Impact of Climate Change—An increase of $379,000 General Fund, of which $75,000 is ongoing, for the UC Los Angeles (UCLA) Anderson School of Management to include climate change economic impacts by California region in the UCLA Anderson Forecast economic forecasting model for California. 

Ralph J. Bunche Center—An increase of $5 million one-time General Fund to support the Ralph J. Bunche Center for African-American Studies at UCLA. 

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*https://www.ebudget.ca.gov/.

**http://uclafacultyassociation.blogspot.com/2022/06/leaks-and-maybe-disappointment.html.